There are no certainties in sport at the very top level, but if you’re looking for the closest example of a sure thing, this weekend you may find it in the wheelchair races at the BMW BERLIN-MARATHON.
It is no exaggeration to suggest that if anyone other than Catherine Debrunner and Marcel Hug wins the women’s and men’s races on Sunday, the odds will have been given an almighty kick in the teeth.
If that sounds like hyperbole, let’s examine the facts.
At the recent Paralympic Games in Paris, Debrunner plundered no fewer than five gold medals, including the marathon. She pocketed silver in a sixth event for good measure.
Hug, her Swiss compatriot, won the marathon for the second consecutive Games and also took home silvers and bronzes to bring his summer tally to five.
Hug has not lost a marathon he has started since Chicago 2021. That’s more than 1,000 days since he tasted defeat, and he has shown up for almost every Major during that period. He is aiming for his ninth Berlin title, but was made to wait for his only gold of the Games until the marathon.
“I had an open account, so to speak,” he said. “I traveled to Paris to win gold and I had to wait until the marathon to do it.”
Debrunner has been less prolific in her appearances, but she still claimed the AbbottWMM Series title in 2023 alongside the man known as the Silver Bullet, and before her golden summer she won the TCS London Marathon to rocket into contention to retain her crown.
Simply put, when these two put their rubber on the road of a Majors race, the outcome is usually not up for debate.
Berlin’s fast course saw Debrunner demolish the world record here in 2023. The race was so quick that the three women behind her also broke it.
“Berlin has special significance for me because it was my first marathon and I was able to win it," she said. "We enjoy the course here because it’s so fast. I haven’t come with concrete time goals because Paris was only three weeks ago, but we are a strong field of women and I’m just looking forward to a fast race.”
There are variables this year that offer reasons to look elsewhere. Recovery time since the heavy workload both athletes took on in Paris has been short, and those who have been more lightly raced may spot an opportunity to exploit any lingering tiredness.
It was a heavy workload this summer for Debrunner’s fellow female Swiss racer, Manuela Schär, a six-time Berlin champion and multiple series champion. Like Debrunner, she is excited by the prospect of racing on Berlin’s accommodating roads.
“This was one of my first marathons and I look forward to coming here every time,” said Schär. “Paris was a rollercoaster for me; some highs but some lows, especially the marathon. That was partly due to the route, and that’s why I’m looking forward to this beautiful route and flat course, you can simply take advantage of that here.”
Schär currently leads Debrunner by 19 points at the top of the table in Series XVI of the Abbott World Marathon Majors. Alongside 25 points for victory on Sunday, there will be an additional eight points available for the first athlete through the half way point.
Hug leads Daniel Romanchuk in the men’s series by only 15 points and, with the American absent from the start list this week, could build a healthy advantage if he can claim maximum points in this happiest of hunting grounds.
