Following the events that unfolded on the streets of Berlin during the women’s BMW BERLIN MARATHON, it could be regarded as a fool’s errand to forecast what might happen in Chicago this weekend.
After Tigist Assefa’s astonishing 2:11:53 world record, more than two minutes faster than the previous best, the boundaries have been redrawn.
Factor in the presence of the enigmatic Sifan Hassan in Sunday’s elite women’s field at the Bank of America Chicago Marathon, and predictions become as easy to make as nailing jelly to a wall.
Hassan pulled off the unlikeliest of wins in London in April, recovering from a sore leg that gave her a deficit of 28 seconds to make up at one stage in the race.
Her rivals that day must still be kicking themselves that they did not drop the hammer and leave her with no chance of recovering that lost ground. If Hassan is in the fight as the finish comes into focus, the rest may as well take off their shoes and head for the train home.
That scenario is sure to be in the thoughts of Ruth Chepngetich. The Kenyan ran a searing first half last year in the Windy City that had her on pace for something in the 2:12 range.
Since Berlin, that no longer seems as mountainous a feat as it did for Chepngetich in 2022. She paid the price in the second half of her race and missed Brigid Kosgei’s then world record of 2:14:04 by 14 seconds.
She must have spent most of her training camp with those digits in mind, only for Assefa to come along and wipe them off the board.
Realigning her pacing strategy to attack sub 2:12 might be a tall order with her training in the bank, but she now knows what 2:12 pace tastes like, and a slightly more sensible first 13.1 miles could set her up nicely.
Hassan, after a busy summer on the track, will have retained her finishing speed. If she can iron out the novice wrinkles that nearly tripped her up in London, she could spring another shock if she is able to live with the leading group that Chepngetich is surely going to have set up for her.
The Dutchwoman is one of eight athletes with PRs under 2:20, among them the 2021 London champion Joyciline Jepkosgei (2:17:43) and Ethiopia’s Tadi Nare, whose 2:17:36 in Valencia last year make her the third sub-2:18 woman in the lineup.
A strong American presence in the field also points to an entertaining precursor to next year’s US Olympic trials. Emily Sisson, the home-grown star of last year’s race, is joined by Des Linden, Emma Bates and Molly Seidel.
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