The Olympic marathons are almost here!
We are days away from finding out who will be crowned the 2024 Olympic marathon champion in Paris, and the results will also have an impact on this year’s Abbott World Marathon Majors series.
In an Olympic and Paralympic year, the Games marathons count as scoring races in the Majors series. That means that alongside the gold, silver and bronze medals (and the $50,000 on offer to the champions from World Athletics), there are 25 points in the series up for grabs to the winners of the men’s and women’s races.
Men’s race
It is genuinely hard to call. On form, the likes of Benson Kipruto and Alex Munyao of Kenya carry AbbottWMM victories from Tokyo and London into the race. Kipruto’s win in Tokyo also saw him comprehensively beat the great Eliud Kipchoge, who trailed home in 10th in the Japanese capital that day. Kipruto's time of 2:02:16 also put him fifth on the all-time list.
Kipchoge, of course, is bidding for his third consecutive Olympic marathon title. He is already assured of his place among the greats – perhaps even at the very top of the list – of the distance, but a third gold medal would put him way out in front.
If either of Kipchoge’s countrymen can win in Paris, they would reach the maximum 50 points in this year’s AbbottWMM series and set themselves up for at least a share of the prize money at the end of this season.
The other traditional powerhouse in marathon running, Ethiopia’s team has lost the threat of 2024 Boston champion Sisay Lemma, but in his place comes Tamirat Tola, the 2022 world champion and 2023 TCS New York City champion.
Then there is Kenenisa Bekele, 42 years of age and fresh from setting a new masters world record in London when he ran 2:04:15 as he came second behind Munyao. If the last decade of Bekele’s career in the marathon has taught us anything, it’s that he cannot be written off, but he has admitted to more injury woes ahead of the race.
Deresa Geleta completes their trio with a speedy 2:03:27 set in Seville in February.
There are threats elsewhere. The Netherlands’ Abdi Nageeye won silver in Tokyo and set a new PB of 2:04:45 this year in Rotterdam, and Belgium’s Bashir Abdi will be bidding to upgrade the bronze he secured in 2021.
Rotterdam was to have been the stage for the late Kelvin Kiptum to make an attempt on his own astonishing world record 2:00:25 set in Chicago in 2023. The car crash that claimed his life early in 2024 means we will never see what he could have done then, and indeed against this stellar field on the streets of the French capital this weekend.
Uganda’s Victor Kiplangat comes in as reigning world champion after triumphing in Budapest last summer.
The course is tough, featuring three long and steep uphill sections, with the first arriving at 10 miles and similar in gradient to the Newton Hills in Boston. Of all the men in the field, Kipruto has mastered those famed hills before when he won there in 2021 and took third place in 2023.
There is another long uphill drag at 12 miles before an eye-watering 10.5% gradient at the 18-mile mark that will last for some 600 metres.
Women’s race
The blue touch paper was well and truly lit in April on the final bend of the TCS London Marathon as Peres Jepchirchir kicked away from Tigist Assefa to take the title.
The defending Olympic champion roared as she crossed the line, knowing she had shown the strength and speed to defeat the fastest women the marathon has ever seen.
Assefa left onlookers dumbfounded in 2023 when she ran 2:11:53 in Berlin to shatter the world record, but could not find a way past the Kenyan seven months later in London.
Jepchirchir also claimed the women’s only world record that day of 2:16:16, but Sunday’s test will present an entirely different set of racing conditions with no pacemakers and temperatures forecast to climb into the low 20s (celsius) in the latter part of the contest.
Jepchirchir has proven her credentials on the demanding courses of Boston and New York, but we have no clear guide as to Assefa's ability to deal with what lies in store when the elevations kick in.
Both Kenyan and Ethiopian teams are loaded.
Hellen Obiri has won back-to-back Boston Marathons, sandwiching a victory in New York City between them, while Sharon Lokedi won New York in 2022 and was third behind Obiri in Boston this year.
The Kenyans left out of the team perhaps speak more to the strength they possess than any other statistic. Brigid Kosgei, who broke the world record in 2019, and Ruth Chepngetich, who almost took the record form Kosgei in 2021, will both be watching on, as will Joyciline Jepkosgei, a two-time Major winner and joint winner of the 2021 AbbottWMM series alongside Jepchirchir.
Alongside Assefa in the Ethiopian team, Megertu Alemu arrives as reigning world champion and Amane Beriso Shankule took third in Tokyo this year.
Medal threats elsewhere
We have already seen in these Games that a shock winner can emerge when the main protagonists are too focused on each other. The meeting of Bekele and Kipchoge is long overdue, but there is a case to argue that neither man is enjoying his best days any longer.
Aside from the other big guns in the field, there could be medals won outside of the dominant forces from East Africa. Molly Seidel proved that in 2021 when she claimed bronze, and Deena Kastor did the same in Athens 20 years ago.
But perhaps this year's outlier is not really an outlier at all.
The Netherlands' Sifan Hassan already has a bronze medal from the 5,000m and is due to run the 10,000m on Friday. Can she claim a podium spot there before repeating the trick on the marathon?
It sounds fanciful, but she has medalled across multiple events before. She also tore up the marathon scene when she arrived in London in 2023, making up a cavernous gap to the leaders after stopping to tend to a sore hip flexor to claim a famous victory. She then flew to the second fastest time in history in Chicago last October.
Things did not go her way in Tokyo in April, but you cannot rule out this enigmatic character's ability to pull off a feat not seen since the days of Emil Zatopek.
The Hassan subplot could become the headline story come mid morning in Paris.
HOW TO WATCH
Men’s race: Saturday, August 10, 7am local time
Women’s race: Sunday, August 11, 7am local time
Find your broadcast here.
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